By Adam Chubbuck, Team Leader, Team Alpha Charlie of Douglas Realty. Retired U.S. Navy Chief. Licensed in Maryland and Virginia.
I get a version of the same question every week: should I wait?
It is a fair question and it deserves an answer built on data rather than on whatever a headline said this morning. So this post lays out what is actually happening across the four variables that determine your outcome as a buyer, rates, inventory, prices, and competition, with every figure attributed to its source and date. Then it addresses the waiting question directly, including the cases where waiting is genuinely the right call.
I am not going to tell you the market is perfect. It is not. I am going to show you what it actually is.
Variable One: Interest Rates
Where they are. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30 year fixed rate mortgage averaging 6.67 percent as of August 13, 2026, down from 6.69 percent the prior week and up from 6.58 percent a year earlier. The 15 year fixed averaged 5.96 percent, down from 6.01 percent the prior week and up from 5.71 percent a year earlier.
What happened this summer. Rates climbed through late July into early August, marking several consecutive weekly increases, driven by inflation concerns and broader uncertainty. The August 13 reading was the first decline in that stretch. Mortgage Bankers Association data showed new mortgage applications declining in the final two weeks of July as affordability tightened.
What the market economists are saying. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted in the August 13 release that housing affordability has improved from a year ago and that recent increases in purchase and refinance applications suggest borrowers are responding. In the prior week’s release he pointed to listing prices sitting modestly below year ago levels and for sale inventory improving from the limited supply of recent years. Bright MLS reported mortgage rates in the 6.5 percent range in its June 2026 report, noting buyers were acting despite them, perhaps out of concern about higher rates later in the year.
The honest read on rates. Rates have been range bound in the mid to high 6s for a sustained period. Nobody knows where they go next, and anyone who tells you they do is guessing. What we can observe is that the range has been stable enough that buyers have stopped treating it as temporary and started transacting inside it.
Variable Two: Inventory
This is the variable that has actually changed, and it is the most important one in this entire post.
- Bright MLS, end of June 2026: 6,752 active listings across the Baltimore metro area, up 17.4 percent year over year. Across the D.C. metro, 11,168 active listings, up 9.0 percent. Notably, single family inventory remains tight, with active detached listings still below half of 2019 levels.
- Redfin, June 2026: 25,369 homes for sale statewide in Maryland, up 13.2 percent year over year, with 7,371 newly listed homes, up 4.9 percent, at about 3 months of supply.
- Maryland REALTORS, June 2026: roughly 2.9 months of supply statewide.
What that means in plain terms. Inventory is meaningfully better than it was a year ago and dramatically better than the 2021 and 2022 environment. You have more to choose from than buyers had at any point in the last several years.
But 2.9 to 3 months of supply is still a seller’s market by conventional measure, and the detached single family segment specifically remains genuinely scarce. So the improvement is real and the constraint is also real, and both things are true simultaneously.
The local exception worth knowing. Inventory improvement is not uniform. In the Pasadena 21122 zip code, Orchard reported total homes for sale at 199, down 29.7 percent year over year, with new listings down 33.1 percent. Some submarkets are tightening while the aggregate loosens.
Variable Three: Prices
Statewide: Maryland REALTORS reported a $465,000 median sale price for June 2026, up 3.3 percent year over year, on 6,913 closed sales. Redfin reported $463,449 for the same month, up 3.0 percent.
Regionally: Bright MLS reported a Mid-Atlantic median sold price of $450,000 in May 2026, up 3.4 percent year over year and the highest level on record for the region. In the D.C. metro specifically, June’s median sold price was $675,000, up 3.8 percent and just shy of the regional record.
By county, per Maryland REALTORS for June 2026:
- Howard County: $675,850
- Anne Arundel County: $535,000
- Baltimore County: $400,000
- Baltimore City: $266,500, up 6.6 percent year over year, the strongest growth in the group
Submarket snapshots:
- Pasadena 21122: Zillow at $421,312 average value, up 0.6 percent. Orchard at a $406,500 median, up 8.5 percent. PropertyIQ at $464,000, up 3.7 percent
- Severna Park: Redfin at $795,024 median for May 2026, up 15.5 percent. Zillow at $723,849 average value, up 2.1 percent
- Catonsville: Zillow at $426,442, up 1.2 percent
- Canton: Zillow at $362,918, up 0.2 percent
- Frederick County: $510,000 median as of April 2026 per Bright MLS data, up 8.1 percent, the strongest in the Maryland portion of the D.C. metro
- Prince George’s County: approximately $428,000 with prices down about 3.8 percent per a January 2026 analysis
The pattern. Low to mid single digit statewide appreciation, with much wider variation underneath. The affordable end of the market is appreciating fastest, which is a demand story. The high end is holding. And at least one major jurisdiction, Prince George’s, is genuinely softening.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant characterized the Mid-Atlantic market as driven by higher end sales, with higher income and repeat buyers most active while moderate income and first time buyers are frequently shut out. That is an important observation and it should temper any read that this is a broadly easy market.
Variable Four: Buyer Competition
Here is where the corridor specific picture gets useful.
Time to contract, per Maryland REALTORS for June 2026:
- Statewide median: 11 days, unchanged from a year earlier
- Howard County: 7 days
- Anne Arundel County: 8 days
- Baltimore County: 8 days
Competition intensity by submarket:
- Pasadena 21122: Redfin Compete Score of 83 out of 100, with homes receiving an average of 2 offers. Orchard reported a median sale to list ratio of 102.03 percent with 59.38 percent of homes selling above list price, and a median of 4.86 days on market. Zillow showed homes going pending in around 6 days
- Severna Park: Redfin Compete Score of 75 out of 100, rated very competitive, with many homes receiving multiple offers and some selling with waived contingencies
- Catonsville: Zillow showed homes going pending in roughly 6 days
- Canton: Zillow showed homes going pending in roughly 10 days
- Baltimore City overall: Redfin reported an average of 49 days on market for the three months ending May 2026, against 37 days a year earlier
Transaction volume is rising, not falling. Bright MLS reported 23,278 closed sales across its service area in June 2026, up 7.3 percent year over year, with new pending sales up 3.9 percent. Redfin reported 5,738 Maryland homes sold in June, up 2.0 percent.
The critical nuance: this market is bifurcated. The correctly priced, well presented inventory in desirable submarkets moves in days with multiple offers. Everything else sits. You can see both patterns in the same zip code on the same week. In Pasadena, Redfin sold records show a property on Appalachian Drive settling 5 percent over list after 24 days, and a waterfront property on Marco Drive settling 20 percent under list after 148 days. In Severna Park, a Robinson Landing Road sale went 6 percent over list after 27 days while a Boone Trail waterfront took 70 days.
Averages hide this completely, and it is the single most useful thing to understand about the current market.
So Should You Wait?
Here is the honest analysis, including the counterargument.
The case for buying now
Inventory is materially better than it has been. Baltimore metro active listings up 17.4 percent year over year is a real improvement in your selection, and selection is worth something you cannot get back later.
Rates are range bound, and the range has been durable. They have hovered in the mid to high 6s for an extended period. Waiting for a specific number is a bet on something nobody can forecast.
Prices are still rising in most of the corridor. Low to mid single digit statewide appreciation means that on a $465,000 purchase, a year of waiting costs you something in the range of $14,000 to $15,000 in purchase price if the trend holds, plus twelve months of rent and twelve months of principal you did not build.
You can refinance a rate. You cannot refinance a purchase price. If rates fall meaningfully, you refinance. If prices rise while you wait, that increase is permanent and it also raises your down payment requirement.
Competition is currently manageable in some segments. A Redfin Compete Score of 75 in Severna Park is competitive, not brutal. Prince George’s County has genuine negotiating room right now.
The case for waiting, which is sometimes correct
I would be doing you a disservice if I skipped this section, so here it is straight.
Wait if you do not have stable income or reserves. A house you cannot comfortably carry through a job loss is not an investment, it is exposure. Reserves matter more than timing.
Wait if you have significant high interest debt. Paying down a credit card balance at 22 percent beats almost any housing return.
Wait if you might move within two to three years. Transaction costs on both ends will likely exceed your appreciation over a short hold. Renting is the correct answer for genuinely short horizons and nobody should be embarrassed about that.
Wait if buying now means zero cushion after closing. Houses generate expenses. A water heater fails, a roof leaks. Closing with nothing left is a bad position regardless of what the market does.
Wait if you are in a softening submarket with no urgency. Prince George’s County prices were down about 3.8 percent year over year in a January 2026 analysis. If your target is a softening market and your timeline is genuinely flexible, patience there may be rewarded.
What is not a good reason to wait
Waiting for the “perfect” market. There is no such thing, and the people who have waited for it since 2021 have watched prices rise substantially and are now trying to buy the same houses with a larger down payment requirement.
Every market has a drawback. In 2021 rates were historic lows and there was no inventory and buyers were waiving inspections. Today there is more inventory and rates are higher. Pick which problem you would rather have. There is no version where you get all of the advantages at once.
The Real Decision Framework
The market timing question is mostly the wrong question. The right questions are:
- Is my income stable and are my reserves adequate?
- Will I be here at least five years?
- Can I comfortably carry the payment at today’s rate, not at a rate I hope for?
- Have I found a property that genuinely works for my life?
If those four are yes, the macro environment is a secondary consideration. If any of them is no, no market condition fixes it.
What Acting Decisively Actually Requires
The bifurcation I described above has a practical consequence. When the right property appears in a competitive submarket, you have days, not weeks. Maryland REALTORS reported 7 and 8 day medians in Howard, Anne Arundel, and Baltimore Counties. Orchard reported a median under 5 days in the Pasadena 21122 zip code.
You cannot get pre-approved, tour, and write a competitive offer inside that window if you start when you see the listing. The work happens beforehand:
- Full underwritten pre-approval before you tour. Not pre-qualification
- A defined offer strategy before you need it. Your position on inspection, escalation, appraisal gap, and settlement flexibility decided in advance rather than under pressure
- Clear criteria and clear compromises identified. You will compromise on something. Decide what before you are emotional about a specific house
- An agent who can be at a new listing within hours and write the same evening
That last one is a real operational capability, and it is a large part of what my team is built to do. We are not going to tell you the market is perfect, because it is not. We are going to make sure that when a property that genuinely fits your life shows up, you are positioned to act on it instead of watching it go under contract while you assemble paperwork.
If you want to get positioned before you start looking, start a conversation with Team Alpha Charlie of Douglas Realty. If this is your first purchase, the assistance side changes what you can compete with, and I keep a current breakdown of Maryland first time homebuyer programs for 2026.
Maryland Housing Market FAQ for 2026
What are mortgage rates right now in Maryland?
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30 year fixed rate mortgage averaging 6.67 percent as of August 13, 2026, down from 6.69 percent the prior week and up from 6.58 percent a year earlier. The 15 year fixed averaged 5.96 percent. These reflect national averages for borrowers with 20 percent down and excellent credit, so your actual quoted rate will depend on your credit, down payment, and loan type.
Is there more inventory in Maryland now?
Yes, meaningfully. Bright MLS reported 6,752 active listings across the Baltimore metro at the end of June 2026, up 17.4 percent year over year, and Redfin reported 25,369 homes for sale statewide, up 13.2 percent. However, active detached single family listings remain below half of 2019 levels, and some individual submarkets are tightening rather than loosening.
Are Maryland home prices still going up in 2026?
In most of the state, yes, at a modest pace. Maryland REALTORS reported a $465,000 statewide median for June 2026, up 3.3 percent year over year. Growth varies widely by jurisdiction: Baltimore City was up 6.6 percent and Frederick County was up 8.1 percent as of April 2026, while Prince George’s County was reported down about 3.8 percent in a January 2026 analysis.
How competitive is the Baltimore to Annapolis corridor for buyers?
Competitive but bifurcated. Maryland REALTORS reported 8 day median times to contract in Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties and 7 days in Howard County for June 2026. Redfin rated the Pasadena 21122 zip code at a Compete Score of 83 out of 100 and Severna Park at 75. But well priced homes move in days while overpriced and heavy condition properties sit for months in the same zip codes.
Should I wait for lower mortgage rates before buying in Maryland?
That depends on your situation rather than on the market. Rates have been range bound in the mid to high 6s for an extended period with no reliable forecast for a decline. Meanwhile statewide prices rose 3.3 percent year over year, which on a $465,000 purchase is roughly $14,000 to $15,000 over a year of waiting. You can refinance a rate later but you cannot refinance a purchase price. That said, waiting is genuinely the right call if your income is unstable, your reserves are thin, you carry significant high interest debt, or you may move within two to three years.
What does it take to compete in the current Maryland market?
Full underwritten pre-approval before you tour, a defined offer strategy on inspection posture, escalation, and appraisal gap decided in advance, clear criteria with your compromises identified beforehand, and an agent who can reach new listings within hours. In markets with sub 10 day medians, preparation completed before the search is what determines whether you can act at all.
Sources and Dates
Figures cited above are attributed to their published source and reporting period: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, August 6 and August 13, 2026. Bright MLS June 2026 Housing Market Report, released July 10, 2026, plus the May 2026 report and Bright MLS data reported through April 2026. Maryland REALTORS Housing Statistics, June 2026. Redfin market data for Maryland, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Severna Park, and the 21122 zip code, reporting periods November 2025 through June 2026, plus individual sold records from January and spring 2026. Zillow Home Value Index for Severna Park, Catonsville, Canton, and the 21122 zip code. Orchard 21122 market report, trailing 30 day period. PropertyIQ 21122 market data through June 2026. Mortgage Bankers Association application data as reported in July 2026. Prince George’s and Montgomery County figures reflect analyses published in January and February 2026. All figures change frequently, reflect aggregates rather than specific properties, and vary by measurement methodology. Nothing in this article is investment, tax, or lending advice. Consult licensed professionals for your specific situation.
Let’s Talk About Your Move
If you are trying to decide whether to buy now or wait, bring me your actual numbers rather than the headline you read. I will show you what the comps say in your specific target submarket, run the math on what waiting a year would actually cost or save you, and give you a straight answer, including telling you to wait if that is what your situation calls for.
I am Adam Chubbuck, Team Leader of Team Alpha Charlie of Douglas Realty. I am a retired U.S. Navy Chief, a licensed Real Estate agent in Maryland and Virginia, and I have closed more than 350 homes over the past five years across the Baltimore to Annapolis corridor. My team serves buyers and sellers throughout Anne Arundel County, Howard County, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and the surrounding markets, with deep experience supporting military, veteran, and Department of Defense families. I also run Enclave Property Management out of Pasadena, Maryland, so I see this market from the ownership side as well as the sales side.
If you are weighing a move, start with a real conversation and real numbers. Reach me directly at 443-347-6692, email [email protected], or start at TACMD.com.
Adam Chubbuck
Team Leader, Team Alpha Charlie of Douglas Realty
Douglas Realty | Licensed in MD and VA
443-347-6692 | [email protected] | TACMD.com
Smile more,
Adam Chubbuck
